[vc_row type=”in_container” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” overlay_strength=”0.3″][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ width=”1/2″][vc_column_text]Resetting Intuitions: 4 Global Forces that are Breaking Trends

This is an age of surprises and breakthroughs—just when you think you know how the world works, things happen to overturn our presumptions.

Let me show you two examples:

The United States celebrates Cyber Monday after Thanksgiving. It is a time when online retailers and businesses compete to rake in customers and profits. In 2013, Americans spent 2.29 billion USD in a single day, topping the chart as the highest sales volume created online.

The great achievement, however, was dwarfed not too long after. Chinese company Alibaba created a record sales volume of 5.75 billion USD in a single day, a sum more than twice of what was achieved in the US.

In the forefront of science and technological advancements, an unlikely player has also recently joined the scene of space exploration, breaking the monopoly by US and Russia. I am talking about India.

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) successfully launched a Mars orbiter, which successfully entered Mars orbit on 24 September 2014, making India the first nation to succeed on its first attempt, and ISRO the fourth space agency in the world as well as the first space agency in Asia to successfully reach Mars orbit.

It has become increasingly often for unexpected players to cut to the forefront of things, breaking boundaries and shattering preconceived notions.

Our time is witnessing change at an unprecedented pace. If you are still relying on your gut instincts developed about ten years ago, then your judgment in many things would be inaccurate. Apply those judgments to your business, and your career risks stagnating and even failing.

Developing your instincts is not difficult. The key is in consuming as much knowledge as possible—read, observe, and add value to yourself. You need to explore and be updated about the latest developments in all major industries, and network with people from all fields.

The revelation about the importance of “change” came to me while reading McKinsey Global Institute’s publication No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends. The book analyses the Trend Break era, and how our economics and business climate is undergoing radical changes.

This book empowered me to understand the current global market, and reminded me that I need to push through changes in my company to welcome the new era
The book by McKinsey posited four main trends that is disrupting the current market:

1.The Age of Urbanisation

The global urban population has been rising by an average of 65 million people annually during the past three decades. Nearly half of global GDP growth between 2010 and 2025 will come from 440 cities in emerging markets—95 percent of them small- and medium-size cities that many Western executives may not even have heard of. Yes, Beijing, Singapore, and Manila are familiar.

But what Brazil’s Santa Catarina state, halfway between São Paulo and the Uruguayan border? Or Tianjin, a city that lies around 120 kilometers southeast of Beijing? McKinsey estimated that by 2025, the GDP of Tianjin will be around $625 billion—approximately that of all of Sweden.

2.Accelerating Technological Change

The second disruptive force is the acceleration in the scope and scale of technology. Technology—from the printing press to the steam engine and the Internet—has always been a great force in overturning the status quo. The difference today is the extremely high presence of technology in our lives and the speed of change.

As fast as innovation has multiplied and spread in recent years, it is poised to change and grow at an exponential speed beyond the power of human intuition to anticipate.

3. Ageing labour force

The human population is getting older. Fertility is falling, and the world’s population is graying dramatically. While ageing has been evident in developed economies for some time—Japan and Russia have seen their populations decline over the past few years—the demographic deficit is now spreading to China and soon will reach Latin America. For the first time in human history, ageing could mean that the planet’s population will plateau in most of the world.

An older and smaller workforce will place a greater onus on productivity for driving growth and may cause us to rethink the economy’s potential. Caring for large numbers of elderly people will put severe pressure on government finances.

4. Trade, people, finance, and data: Greater global connections

The final disruptive force is the degree to which the world is much more connected through trade and through movements in capital, people, and information.

Asia is becoming the world’s largest trading region. The volume of trade between China and Africa rose from $9 billion in 2000 to $211 billion in 2012. Global capital flows expanded 25 times between 1980 and 2007. More than one billion people crossed borders in 2009, over five times the number in 1980. The links forged by technology have marched on uninterrupted and with increasing speed, ushering in a dynamic new phase of globalisation.

There is an urgent need to adjust to and accept these new realities. However, there is a powerful human tendency to want ignore obvious trends and stick to our old ways of operation—but this is precisely why huge corporations have repeatedly failed. Sitting back in denial to what is happening in the world will leave many of us highly vulnerable. Gaining a clear-eyed perspective on how to negotiate the changing landscape will help us prepare to succeed.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ width=”1/2″][vc_column_text]时代迎向颠覆 领导人不能不知的世界四大改变

这是一个颠覆的年代,所有的东西正以你意想不到的方向前行,甚至会完全出乎你的意料之外,改变你的既定的认知。

我在这里举两个例子:

美国每年的感恩节后的“网购星期一”(Cyber Monday),每个商家都想赚消费者的钱,有记录显示,2013年12月2日,美国人在一天之内总共消费了22.9亿美元,创下史上最高网购金额的记录。

但这项纪录却鲜为人知,因为全世界目光都被中国阿里巴巴在光棍节单日创下的57.5亿美元的记录给狠狠夺走,这样的天文数字,让中国坐稳网购大国的宝座。

说到外空大国,我们必定会想到美国、俄罗斯或是欧洲,但这一个国家却出乎你的意料,挤入了太空强国,那就是印度。

2014年9月14日,印度众太空控制中心宣布成功发射探测器至火星轨道,成为第四个成功探测火星的国家。

这两件事说明了一个事实:所有你意想不到的人事物,将会掌握事情的发展走向。

改变,真的是来的又快又意外,所有你以为只要按照趋势就能达到终点的认知正在改变,各位领导人,是时候重新设定自己对趋势的直觉了,要不然,你将会跟不上时代的脚步,你所领导的企业也会停滞不前。

要培养直觉不是一件难事,秘诀在于多读多听多看,增值自己。你所要关注的课题不仅仅是商业的资讯,你还要多阅读不同种类的书籍,结交不同领域的专才,开拓自己的视野,打破旧有的观念,若你依然墨守成规,无法掌控时代的步伐,你将会被时代的洪流给淹没。

我之所以拥有“抛弃固有观念,迎向时代“的观点是深受麦锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)出版的研究书籍《大颠覆》(No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends )的影响,该本书籍将急速改变的世界命名为“趋势断裂”(Trend Break)的大颠覆年代,麦锡研究所更断言,世界经济的”作业系统“正在改写。

这本书更加深我对当前全球市场的了解,也让我深思该如何让企业让能不断推陈出新以适应大时代的冲击。

根据麦锡研究所的研究显示,这个年代有四大趋势,各国领袖以及企业领导人必须了解并针对四大趋势做出改变。

该书的三位作家多布斯(Richard Dobbs)、麦尼卡(James Maniyika)以及华强森(Jonathan Woetzel)认为人们都知道时代起了一些变化,但大多数人都不了解这四大推理的冲击力究竟有多巨大,以及后续的的第二波、第三波冲击以及影响究竟有多深远。

在《大颠覆》书中,提及了这四大趋势:

1)新兴市场城市化:

在《大颠覆》的书籍中提及这一段的变化,我选两段最精华的解说来说明“新兴市场城市化”的意义:“全球经济活动的重心正逐渐移往新兴市场,因为新兴市场正快速城市化、工业化。过去三十年,全世界的城市人口每年平均增加6500万人,相当于每年增加七个芝加哥市。预估到2025球将近一半的GDP,将来自新兴市场的440个城市。”

“其中,高达95%都会是西方企业不熟悉的中小型城市──他们或许对孟买、杜拜或上海了若指掌,却可能对台湾的新竹、巴西的圣卡塔琳娜倍感陌生。而天津,这个与北京相距120公里的东北都会,2025年的经济规模,预估将达2650亿美元,相当于今天的瑞典。”

我非常认同该书的观点,我本身也有察觉,首都以外的城市已经开始慢慢崛起,近年来,我也将商业的目光分配给首都以外的中型小城市,认真的研究在这些地域开发新业务的可能性。

2)科技的速度演变:

这是一个角度绝对不能忽视的趋势,“不断普及的科技,加速了世界的创新,带来了资料革命(指的是能让消费者以及企业都大量掌握资讯),也催生了各种全新的商业模式(从阿里巴巴等电子商业,到Uber等手机叫车服务)”,《大颠覆》一书中对科技的转变做了一个精辟的解释。

我非常认同,科技让新型国家的数十亿人民有机会从快速发展的经济中获益,若领导者要让企业站稳脚步,就要重点研究社交媒体等科技,并尽早侍应科技的脚步,然后迅速的做出有效的决策以及分配资源。

3)劳动力老龄化:

相信大家也知道日本是一个老龄化很严重的国家,我们打开电视,就会看见政治人物几乎都很大年纪,这不是一个好的现象。因为不仅日本面临人口老化的问题,全世界的人口老化已经开始蔓延至亚洲,例如中国、泰国。根据一项数据显示,2015年,中国的劳动年龄人口达到高峰,泰国的生育率则从1970年后的5,下跌至1.4而已。

这就意味着,企业发展中最需要也是最基本的人力资源将面对最严峻的考验——劳动力缩水以及人才从缺。由此可见,生产力是燃眉之急,政府必须尽速正视这个问题,提升生产力,要不然国家的经济成长将受限,企业要突围将会难上加难!

4)全球流动加速:

《大颠覆》一书中指涉的的流动领域包括:贸易、资金、人员和资讯。

全球贸易体系已经从欧洲、北美和低的枢纽间的几条路线,扩充为更大的联络网,而亚洲的急速的经济增长,已然变成最大的贸易区。

“跟80年代相比,全球资金流动和成长了数十倍,同时,2009年就有超过10亿人出国,人员流动的规模是80年代的五倍。

我向来认为,全球化除了为亚洲经济带来的机会之外,也要随时准备自己应对全球话化来的波动,必须将目光调高调远,未雨绸缪,别等到挑战来了才匆忙应对,来不及了。

作为二十一世纪的企业领导人,我无可避免的参与了这个变化,也深刻的体会了这四个动力是如何的影响经济发展,甚至影响市场、产业以及我们生活的各个层面。

我们无法改变大环境,正如我前文所说的,我们能做的就是抛开固有的观念,重新设定直觉——掌握世界动态,培养换脑袋、准备回应挑战的勇气以及远。

资料参考:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upmVIx2tm7o
http://www.cw.com.tw/article/articleLogin.action?id=5067614
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/no-ordinary-disruption[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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